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sábado, 29 de abril de 2017

FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES: How Trump Has Reshaped the Presidency, and How It’s Changed Him, Too

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President Trump boarding Air Force One in Maryland on Friday. The president operating on Day 100 is not the same as the one who took office in January. CreditAl Drago/The New York Times
WASHINGTON — In his first 100 days in power, President Trump has transformed the nation’s highest office in ways both profound and mundane, pushing traditional boundaries, ignoring longstanding protocol and discarding historical precedents as he reshapes the White House in his own image.
But just as Mr. Trump has changed the presidency, advisers and analysts say it has also changed him. Still a mercurial and easily offended provocateur capable of head-spinning gyrations in policy and politics, Mr. Trump nonetheless at times has adapted his approach to both the job and the momentous challenges it entails.
As Washington pauses to evaluate the opening phase of the Trump presidency, the one thing everyone seems to agree on is that, for better or worse, the capital has headed deep into uncharted territory. On almost every one of these first 100 days, Mr. Trump has done or said something that caused presidential historians and seasoned professionals inside the Beltway to use the phrase “never before.”
He has assumed even more power for the presidency, expanding President Barack Obama’s use of executive orders to offset the inability to pass major legislation and making it more independent of the Washington establishment. He has been more aggressive than any other president in using his authority to undo his predecessor’s legacy, particularly on trade, business regulation and the environment. And he has dominated the national conversation perhaps more thoroughly than any president in a generation.

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At the same time, he has cast off conventions that constrained others in his office. He has retained his business interests, which he implicitly cultivates with regular visits to his properties. He has been both more and less transparent than other presidents, shielding his tax returns and White House visitor logs from public scrutiny while appearing to leave few thoughts unexpressed, no matter how incendiary or inaccurate. And he has turned the White House into a family-run enterprise featuring reality-show-style, “who will be thrown off the island?” intrigue.
“His first 100 days is a reflection of how much the presidency has changed,” said Janet Mullins Grissom, a top official in President George Bush’s White House and State Department. “The biggest difference between President Trump and his predecessors is that he is the first president in my political lifetime who comes to the office unbeholden to any special interest for his electoral success, thus immune to typical political pressures.”
In effect, she said, that compensates for a victory he secured in the Electoral College without winning the popular vote. “That gives him as much leverage as someone who won with landslide numbers — and the freedom to govern his way,” she said. “And his voters love him for it.”
Where Washington veterans fret about deviations from past norms, Mr. Trump’s supporters see a president willing to shake things up. Where Washington cares about decorum and process, they want a president fighting for them against entrenched powers.
Yet the crockery-breaking leader has shown signs of evolving. The president operating on Day 100 is not the same as the one who took office in January, when he was determined to make nice with Russia, make trouble for China and make war on elites.
By his own account, Mr. Trump has discovered how much more complicated issues like health care and North Korea are than he realized, and he has cast off some of his most radical campaign promises after learning more about the issues.
“I’m more inclined to say the presidency has changed Trump rather than Trump changed the presidency,” said H.W. Brands, a University of Texas professor who has written biographies of multiple presidents, including Ronald Reagan and both Roosevelts. “He has moderated or reversed himself on most of the positions he took as a candidate. Reality has set in, as it does with every new president.”
All the more so for the first president in American history who had never spent a day in government or the military, and surrounded himself with top advisers who had not either. Although Mr. Trump assumed that his experience in business and entertainment would translate to the White House, he has found out otherwise.
“I never realized how big it was,” he said of the presidency in an interview with The Associated Press. “Every decision,” he added, “is much harder than you’d normally make.”
In a separate interview with Reuters, he said: “This is more work than in my previous life. I thought it would be easier.”
Mr. Trump arrived at the White House unimpressed by conventions that governed the presidency. At first, he blew off the idea of receiving intelligence briefings every day because he was “a smart person” and did not need to hear “the same thing every day.” He telephoned foreign leaders during the transition without consulting or even informing government experts on those countries.
 
Video

The Trump Administration: 100 Days in 2 Minutes

A whirlwind tour of the triumphs and setbacks that marked the first 100 days of Donald J. Trump’s presidency.
 By SHANE O’NEILL on Publish DateApril 27, 2017. Photo by Stephen Crowley/The New York Times. Watch in Times Video »
He badgered specific companies on Twitter about moving jobs overseas and called in the chief executive of Lockheed Martin to complain about the cost of the F-35 fighter jet, never mind that presidents typically do not involve themselves in the affairs of individual companies or directly negotiate federal contracts.
Mr. Trump likewise has gleefully taken credit on days that stocks have risen and publicly commented on the strength of the dollar, which presidents generally do not do either, both because it might be viewed as unseemly interference in the markets and because it invites blame when they have a bad day.
His boastfulness knows few bounds. “I truly believe that the first 100 days of my administration has been just about the most successful in our country’s history,” he said in his weekly address on Friday.
His Twitter account, of course, has been the vehicle for all sorts of outbursts that defy tradition, often fueled by the latest segment on Fox News. Presidents rarely taunt reality-show hosts about poor ratings, complain about late-night television comedy skits, berate judges or members of their own party who defy them, trash talk Hollywood stars and Sweden, declare the “fake news” media to be “the enemy of the American people” or accuse the last president of illegally wiretapping them without any proof.
David Gergen, a White House aide to four presidents, including Reagan, noted that Franklin D. Roosevelt talked about the “moral leadership” of the presidency. “Unfortunately, we have lost sight of that vision in recent years, and it has almost disappeared during the first 100 days of the Trump administration,” Mr. Gergen said.
Another change to the presidency involves Mr. Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns — a practice of presidents for 40 years — and his continued ownership of a vast business empire that includes properties both overseas and blocks from the White House. “He has overstepped the ethics limits that have bound all other presidents for decades,” said Norman L. Eisen, a chief White House ethics adviser under Mr. Obama.
Beyond that, Mr. Trump has been slow to create a structure like those in past administrations. Orders and memos have not always been reviewed by all relevant officials. Meetings are not always attended by key aides who are leery of leaving the president’s side. “The notion of a chain of command is gone,” said David F. Gordon, the State Department director of policy planning under President George W. Bush.
But if the presidency had grown somewhat stale under the old norms as its occupants increasingly stuck to carefully crafted talking points and avoided spontaneity, Mr. Trump has brought back a certain authenticity and willingness to engage. His frequent news conferences and interviews can be bracingly candid, uninhibited, even raw. He leaves little mystery about what is on his mind.
“The 2016 election wasn’t a delicate request to challenge existing traditions; it was a demand that our next president do things different,” said Jason Miller, a top adviser to Mr. Trump during the campaign. “And while the professional political class struggles to understand what has happened to their hold on power, supporters of President Trump — the forgotten men and women he referenced in his Inaugural Address — love the change they’re seeing.”
Presumably Mr. Trump will remain impulsive and even impetuous, but he has also been open to advice. He was talked out of lifting sanctions on Russia, moving the American embassy to Jerusalem, abandoning the “one China” policy, tearing up the Iran nuclear agreement, reversing the diplomatic opening to Cuba, closing the Export-Import Bank, declaring China a currency manipulator and, in recent days, terminating the North American Free Trade Agreement. He may still do some or all of these, but by waiting, he has the opportunity to lay the groundwork rather than act precipitously.
He now receives his intelligence briefings most days. And aides said they had noticed signs of growth in office, pointing to his decision to strike Syria after it used chemical weapons on civilians and his private efforts to persuade Egypt to release an imprisoned American aid worker. Both cases showed that Mr. Trump “has absorbed the responsibilities of the office and the impact of the decisions he makes,” said a White House official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the boss.
Even if Mr. Trump adapts, though, the larger question is whether the institution will ever be the same. Future presidents may feel freer to make unfounded statements, withhold tax returns or keep private business interests without fear of political penalty. Taboos once broken no longer seem inviolable.
Still, Mayor Rahm Emanuel of Chicago, a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton and chief of staff for Mr. Obama, said there might be a backlash once Mr. Trump leaves office. “After Trump, there will be a collective desire to return to tradition,” he predicted. “Whoever comes next will be the anti-Trump in style and character. That’s how it works.”
Karl Rove, the senior adviser to the younger Mr. Bush, agreed. “President Trump will make it difficult for future presidents to step back from the use of social media,” he said, “but it’s very likely the next administration will be more restrained and less personal.” The next president, he added, will probably deploy social media as a premeditated strategy. “It will be part of a plan, not a method of catharsis.”
Meena Bose, the director of the Peter S. Kalikow Center for the Study of the American Presidency at Hofstra University, said Mr. Trump’s presidency so far seemed unlike almost any other, except perhaps Andrew Jackson’s. She noted that Jackson was seen as erratic at the time but was later evaluated by historians as a near-great president.
“Might the Trump presidency be viewed similarly someday?” she asked. “Difficult to see at the 100-day mark, but that is an artificial measurement, with so much of the presidency still to come.”

lunes, 12 de septiembre de 2016

FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES: Angela Merkel’s Problems in Germany Could Challenge Europe, Too

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BERLIN — Even Angela Merkel, the usually unruffled veteran of European crises after almost 11 years as chancellor of Germany, had to admit it last week: “The world finds itself in a critical condition,” she said, and there is no point “in painting anything rosier than it is.”
The outlook for Ms. Merkel is not especially rosy, either.
After years of broad and deep support at home, bolstering her as she grew to become the Continent’s most powerful leader, she is heading toward national elections next year more politically vulnerable than at any time since her early days in office, with implications that extend far beyond Germany’s borders.
When she arrives in Slovakia on Friday for a summit meeting of leaders from 27 European Union nations — all save Britain, which voted in June to leave the bloc — her ability to navigate her troubles at home will hang over the gathering.
Since Britain’s decision, other European governments have done little to respond to the surge in populism and nationalism across the Continent or to reassure their citizens that the European Union can be a force for good in their lives.
With Ms. Merkel’s attention split between strengthening her domestic position and addressing Europe’s woes, the task of developing a united and effective response could become that much harder.
Her continued defense of her decision to admit more than a million migrants to Germany last year has left her increasingly isolated from other leaders coping with anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim sentiment in their electorates, especially after terrorist attacks.
With growth across the eurozone still “tilted to the down side,” as the European Central Bank chief, Mario Draghi, said on Thursday, Ms. Merkel’s new vulnerability may undercut Germany’s ability to impose its austerity-based economic policy on the bloc and fuel calls for more government spending from countries still struggling with high unemployment and slow growth.
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And an inward turn by Germany as it debates its response to the migration crisis and holds elections in a year’s time could create a further leadership void in Europe at a critical moment.
Already, President François Hollande of France is all but a lame duck, deeply unpopular and a long shot for re-election next year, and Prime Minister Matteo Renzi of Italy remains politically fragile, struggling to push through constitutional changes and to assert himself on the European stage.
And the rift between the more pluralistic nations of Western Europe and governments in Central and Eastern Europe, some of which are increasingly authoritarian, has heightened the challenge of keeping the Continent knit tightly together.
In the middle of all this, as ever, is Ms. Merkel, whose political peril in Germany remains hard to judge — especially, her supporters emphasize, while the country’s economy remains relatively strong.
But she is under increased attack, from within her own center-right bloc and from a resurgent far-right, over her immigration policy. And while German officials remain aghast at Britain’s lack of a plan for disengaging from the European Union, she has not offered a well-articulated vision for how to hold the bloc together.
Hostile commentators and critics in her own bloc could hardly contain their glee at her new vulnerability after the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party pushed Ms. Merkel’s conservatives intothird place in an election in the impoverished and sparsely populated northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on Sept. 4.
It was the first time Ms. Merkel’s bloc of Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, had been overtaken on the right in any such election in modern Germany. That the result came a year to the day after she threw open the country’s borders to admit migrants trapped in Hungary, and that it occurred in her political home state, which shelters very few refugees, accentuated the loss.
“Angela Merkel is wobbling,” said Wolfram Weimer of the news channel N-TV. “Her aura of winner is destroyed, and her image as farseeing, clever strategist of power along with it.”
Talk of the twilight of Ms. Merkel’s time in office may be exaggerated, said Tina Hildebrandt of the influential weekly Die Zeit, “but that so much is open is spectacular enough.”
“Merkel’s loss of reputation is immense,” Ms. Hildebrandt added. “Her situation almost reminds us of the beginning of her career,” when the distinctly un-chic Ms. Merkel, a physicist from the Communist East, was much criticized for her style — and much underestimated in her ability and will to get to the top.
The chancellor showed that grit on Wednesday with a spirited speech to Parliament, defending her policy at home and the controversial pact she negotiated with Turkey to stop Middle Eastern migrants from crossing to Greece and into Europe.
Since that agreement was signed, she said, almost no migrants have drowned in the Aegean Sea, compared with hundreds in the two months before.
“In that situation, you can’t just loon on,” said Ms. Merkel, the daughter of a Lutheran pastor. “You must work with another country and find a way forward.”
Ms. Merkel has taken responsibility for the election loss on Sept. 4 and doubled down on her refusal to emulate neighboring Austria by limiting the number of asylum seekers who can come each year. (Austria, her partner last year in admitting the migrants, may elect a far-right politician as president this year.)
But as politicians scramble ahead of German national elections next fall, that limit on immigration is becoming a litmus test for her conservative Bavarian sister party, and even for the center-left Social Democrats, with whom Ms. Merkel governs nationally in a coalition.
Ms. Merkel has met almost every European leader ahead of the summit meeting in Bratislava, where the 27 nations are expected to agree on stronger security measures and try again to stimulate economic growth and jobs for the young.
Daniela Schwarzer, a senior director of the German Marshall Fund in Berlin, said she saw the chancellor as still very much in charge.
“I would not say that she has lost control, or the capacity to lead Germany,” Ms. Schwarzer said. “But she will have to take into account that there are vocal people in populist parties and critical voices in her own camp.”
The far-right Alternative for Germany party now has seats in nine of the country’s 16 state legislatures and seems likely to win more when the city-state of Berlin votes on Sunday.
The chancellor might turn with relief to the next item on her calendar: a Sept. 19 summit meeting at the United Nations, hosted with President Obama, on the global crisis of up to 60 million migrants, many of them in Africa.
Ms. Merkel wants vastly more aid and action to prevent sub-Saharans from surging through Niger and Mali to Libya and then to Europe.
Mr. Obama may be more sympathetic to her challenges than many of Ms. Merkel’s compatriots.
“Perhaps because she once lived behind a wall herself,” Mr. Obama said on a visit to Germany in April, “Angela understands the aspirations of those who’ve been denied their freedom and who seek a better life.”
He added, “I know the politics around this issue can be difficult in all of our countries.”

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